Escalating monsoon risk may hurt Rabi production too

Govt needs to be ready with contingency plans. Extraordinary situations demand extraordinary responses and political will to overcome challenges

Indian agriculture faces a serious climate risk in 2026-27. El Nino is taking a toll. We are halfway through the four-month southwest monsoon cycle (June to September), and the picture is one of concern.

Earlier, despite late onset and tardy progress of the southwest monsoon in June, copious rains in July prevented drought-like conditions and brought a sense of relief for the stakeholders in the farm sector. 

Yet, as of July 31, the rainfall deficiency nationwide is 13% (-13%). Out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 subdivisions still face a serious deficit of precipitation. These include Punjab, Haryana, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, parts of Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. In other words, the spatial distribution of rains so far is less-than-satisfactory. 

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) recently said rainfall in August and September would be below normal. This is sure to hurt the Kharif crop conditions and harvest prospects. 

As of July 24, the planted area for key crops, like paddy, pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds, and cotton, is actually trailing last year’s level at this time. There’s a long way to reach the normal area coverage (5-year average), but the planting window effectively closed by mid-July. 

So, further reports of area coverage will only show a small increase, considering the usual lag in states’ reporting the planted area. In other words, it is becoming increasingly clear that the 2026-27 Kharif crop harvest size is likely to fall well below the season’s target and from last year’s levels too. 

Worse, going by the IMD’s latest prediction, a more scary picture is emerging for Rabi crops. El Nino conditions are likely to intensify during the October-December quarter and reach the ‘very severe’ category. This period coincides with Rabi crop planting. Major Rabi crops include wheat, pulses (mainly chickpea (chana) and lentils (masur)) and oilseeds (mainly rapeseed-mustard), and the crops need soil moisture and winter rains for healthy growth.

The big concern is it may turn out to be a double whammy, reminiscent of the 2015-16 season when the country faced two successive seasons of less-than-normal rainfall, sharp decline in crop production, food inflation, and higher imports. 

This year, too, we may have to brace for food inflation. The situation can worsen if the Persian Gulf crisis continues to disrupt energy supply chains and crude oil continues to trade at triple digits (Brent $100 a barrel and above) for an extended period of time. Fertiliser shortages and elevated prices may further skewer the farm conditions. 

So what are the policy options for the government? Food security and inflation control ought to be the two primary priorities for policymakers. Sugar exports are suspended till September, and stock limits are imposed. 

It is necessary to ensure that buffer stocks of rice and wheat are deployed in a manner that ensures adequate availability of fine cereals for the vulnerable sections of the population. Diversion of grains (maize and rice) for ethanol purposes should be severely restricted, if not stopped, until supply normalcy is restored by next year. Restricting non-Basmati rice export may also be considered, given the potential tightness in rice supply that may emerge later this year. 

On the pulses front, the country will continue to import pulses like pigeon pea (tur/arhar), black matpe (urad), lentil (masur), yellow pea, etc. It is possible the import duty on chickpeas and lentils may be waived off to contain the price rise. I expect India will import over 70 lakh tonnes of various pulses to meet the shortfall. 

The limited prospect of oilseed production will force larger imports of various vegetable oils, including palm and soy oils. Already, our annual import volumes are rather high at 150-160 lakh tonnes, and they may increase by 10% this year. There is a looming risk to income growth in rural areas because of lower harvests. It can potentially result in some amount of constriction in rural demand and consumption, especially of non-essential goods. 

New Delhi needs to be ready with contingency plans for various scenarios. It is going to be a daunting challenge. Extraordinary situations demand extraordinary responses and political will to overcome challenges. Food security and energy security deserve to be treated on par with national defence security. 

G CHANDRASHEKHAR