The SIR that hurts everyone: Myths vs facts in West Bengal

In a state where polls turn on nuanced social engineering rather than blunt majoritarianism, alienating core Hindu constituencies carries political costs

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of West Bengal’s electoral rolls has become the defining controversy ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections. Nearly 91 lakh names were removed from a pre-SIR electorate of about 7.66 crore, shrinking the voter base by roughly 12% to around 6.75 crore. Of these deletions, approximately 58 lakh occurred in the initial phase under categories such as Absent, Shifted, Dead, or Duplicate (ASDD), with an additional 5 lakh or so in supplementary lists. Around 27 lakh were deleted after adjudication by judicial officers for “logical discrepancies”, while many others remain in appeal processes but cannot vote in the upcoming polls due to a SC directive freezing the rolls.

In the heat of political campaigning, two dominant narratives have overshadowed a data-driven reading. The BJP has portrayed the exercise as a successful purge of illegal Bangladeshi infiltrators and Rohingyas, along with duplicates and ghosts allegedly inflating the Trinamool Congress (TMC) support. The TMC, in turn, frames it as a targeted assault on Bengali identity, particularly harming minorities and aimed at tilting the electoral arithmetic in the BJP’s favour.

Delhi-centric commentary often amplifies the first two angles, fixating on Muslim-dominated districts like Murshidabad and Malda topping deletion lists as evidence of the TMC’s distress. Yet, this selective lens distorts reality. Electoral outcomes in West Bengal have long hinged more on ground-level chemistry—local alliances, welfare delivery, caste equations, and anti-incumbency—than raw arithmetic. The SIR data reveals a far more complex picture that challenges both partisan spins. 

No Mass Detection of Illegal Immigrants: Neither the EC nor the BJP has presented evidence that the bulk—or even a significant majority—of the deleted voters were illegal immigrants. The 27 lakh adjudicated deletions stem from documentation gaps, address mismatches, or unverified claims during field verification and tribunal hearings. Affected individuals retain the right to appeal, and many genuine Indian citizens, including Hindus, have found themselves entangled in the process. Reports of families with long-standing voter IDs, ration cards, and Aadhaar being flagged underscore that the exercise cast a wide net rather than surgically targeting foreigners.

Claims of “one crore” illegal Bangladeshi or Rohingya voters, floated by some BJP leaders before the SIR, found little substantiation in the final numbers. The process has not yielded the dramatic unmasking of mass infiltration that was projected. Instead, it has disrupted verified citizens who struggled with legacy data linkage, especially in a state with high migration for work and historical refugee inflows. Ground realities show Hindus and Muslims alike among the genuinely affected, diluting any narrative of a one-sided purge of “infiltrators”. 

Muslims Are Not the Majority of Deleted Names: Booth-level comparisons before and after the SIR show that of the roughly 91 lakh deletions, approximately 57.47 lakh (63.4%) were Hindus and 31.1 lakh (34.3%) were Muslims. Hindus, who form the larger share of the state’s population (around 70-72% per 2011 census trends), account for the highest absolute numbers deleted. Muslims (27% of the population) appear over-represented proportionally at 34%, particularly in the adjudication phase concentrated in districts like Murshidabad, Malda, and parts of North and South 24 Parganas. However, this does not translate to Muslims bearing the “majority” burden.

The initial 58 lakh ASDD deletions included a heavy concentration of “shifted” voters—around 32 lakh—in Hindi-speaking migrant belts such as Kolkata North and South, Paschim Bardhaman, and Howrah. Many of these likely involved inter-state migrants, especially from Bihar, who updated registrations during that state’s earlier SIR exercise weeks before Bengal’s. This cross-state duplication cleanup disproportionately hit Hindu migrant communities in industrial and urban pockets.

In the subsequent adjudication wave, patterns varied sharply. Some analyses of supplementary lists in specific constituencies (e.g., Nandigram) showed high Muslim percentages in deletions, but statewide second-phase data revealed over 97% of certain batches as Hindus. High Hindu deletions also occurred in Matua-dominated border areas of North 24 Parganas and Nadia.  

SIR Will Harm Both BJP And TMC: While the deletions may arithmetically compress TMC strongholds in southern and central Bengal, the BJP is far from insulated. Large-scale Hindu name removals directly erode its potential base. The Matua community—Hindu refugees from Bangladesh who have been a cornerstone of the BJP’s growth in recent cycles, particularly in 2019 and 2021—has reported significant deletions in their belts across North 24 Parganas and Nadia. Community leaders have voiced anger, with many families facing citizenship-related anxiety despite past promises under the Citizenship Amendment Act. 

In the Jangalmahal region (tribal-dominated areas of Purulia, Bankura, and Jhargram), long a BJP stronghold, deletions have been notable though relatively lower in some pockets. Tribal and Scheduled Caste voters here, often reliant on welfare linkages, faced hurdles in producing required legacy documents. Hindi-speaking communities in industrial belts—many from lower economic strata and traditional BJP supporters—suffered heavily in the “shifted” category. Reports indicate entire families affected, breeding resentment that could translate into anti-BJP votes from remaining members.

Pure mathematics suggests the BJP cannot assume net gains. When a voter loses faith due to a deleted name—whether their own or a family member’s—loyalty erodes. In a state where elections turn on nuanced social engineering rather than blunt majoritarianism, alienating core Hindu constituencies through bureaucratic overreach carries political costs. 

Women Have Borne a Disproportionate Burden: In a state where women voters have historically outnumbered men in turnout and shown rising participation under welfare-focused governance, the SIR has reversed gains. Data from independent analyses indicate that women accounted for over 61.8% of those deleted or placed under adjudication—roughly 61.93 lakh women affected. This skew appears in more than 88% of the 294 Assembly constituencies, with women forming over half the deletions in most.

Poor women, who depend on schemes delivered at the doorstep, faced acute challenges in navigating hearings or gathering paperwork. Gender bias compounds other vulnerabilities, silencing a demographic that has consistently turned out in higher proportions than men in recent Bengal polls. Neither major party has adequately addressed this silent disenfranchisement, yet its long-term impact on democratic participation could be profound.

Sayantan Ghosh