Amid AIMIM pressure and Muslim vote dynamics

The upcoming Jubilee Hills Assembly bypoll in Telangana, necessitated by the death of sitting BRS MLA Maganti Gopinath, has emerged as a critical battleground for the Congress party, which is grappling with complex caste and communal dynamics to secure a foothold in Hyderabad. The Congress, which failed to win a single seat in the twin cities of Hyderabad and Secunderabad during the 2023 Legislative Assembly elections, faces a pivotal opportunity to reclaim political relevance in this upscale constituency.

However, the party’s strategy is complicated by reported pressure from All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi, who is allegedly urging Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy and Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee (TPCC) chief Mahesh Kumar Goud not to field a Muslim candidate. This development, coupled with Congress’s push to project a Backward Class (BC) candidate and leverage its recent caste census, underscores the intricate interplay of identity politics in Telangana’s electoral landscape.

In the 2023 Assembly elections, Congress’s Mohammad Azharuddin, a former Indian cricket captain, contested the Jubilee Hills seat but lost to BRS’s Maganti Gopinath by a margin of 16,337 votes. Azharuddin polled 64,212 votes, while Gopinath secured 80,549. The contest was made more challenging by AIMIM’s decision to field Mohammed Rashed Farazuddin, who garnered 7,848 votes, finishing fourth.

Political analysts suggest that AIMIM’s entry split the Muslim vote, indirectly bolstering BRS’s chances. With approximately 27% of Jubilee Hills’ electorate being Muslim, their voting behaviour is a decisive factor. The Congress’s failure to secure Muslim support in the twin cities during the 2023 polls was a significant setback, as the community largely backed AIMIM and its ally, the BRS, which won 17 seats in the Hyderabad region while AIMIM retained its seven strongholds.

Given this backdrop, fielding a Muslim candidate like Feroz Khan, who narrowly lost to AIMIM in Nampally in 2023 and alleged “vote chori” (vote theft), could be a strategic move to consolidate Muslim votes. Khan’s familiarity with Hyderabad’s electorate and his claim of being unfairly defeated make him a compelling choice. However, Owaisi’s reported opposition to a Muslim Congress candidate introduces a significant hurdle. On Saturday, Owaisi extended AIMIM’s support to Justice Sudershan Reddy, the INDIA Alliance’s vice-presidential candidate, signalling a willingness to cooperate with Congress on national issues. Yet, his alleged pressure on Revanth Reddy and Goud suggests a calculated move to maintain AIMIM’s dominance over Muslim voters in Hyderabad. By discouraging a Muslim Congress candidate, Owaisi may aim to prevent a direct challenge to AIMIM’s influence, ensuring that Muslim votes remain fragmented or flow to his party or its allies.

Meanwhile, Congress appears to be pivoting toward a BC candidate, possibly Naveen Yadav, to appeal to the Backward Classes, who form a significant portion of Telangana’s electorate. Yadav, who contested as an AIMIM candidate in 2014 and secured 41,656 votes, finishing second, could leverage his local recognition and BC identity. This move aligns with Congress’s broader narrative of prioritizing BC welfare, as evidenced by its recent caste census—a first-of-its-kind initiative in Telangana aimed at addressing social justice demands further underscores Congress’s attempt to balance Muslim representation with broader caste-based outreach. Azharuddin’s induction, despite his 2023 electoral loss, addresses criticism of Congress’s lack of Muslim representation in the state cabinet, but it also signals a strategic retreat from fielding him again in Jubilee Hills, possibly to avoid antagonizing Owaisi.

The Congress’s dilemma is stark: fielding a Muslim candidate risks alienating AIMIM, which could retaliate by intensifying its campaign or splitting the Muslim vote, as seen in 2023. Conversely, opting for a BC candidate like Yadav may dilute Congress’s appeal among Muslims, who feel neglected by secular parties, as noted in a 2019 Caravan analysis of AIMIM’s rising influence. The Muslim community’s growing disillusionment with Congress, coupled with AIMIM’s narrative of being a stronger advocate for Muslim, Dalit, and BC interests, complicates the party’s calculus. Owaisi’s 2023 decision to contest Jubilee Hills was perceived as a “googly” to undermine Azharuddin, and a similar strategy could be employed in the bypoll, with AIMIM preparing to field a candidate to influence the outcome.

Congress’s chances of winning Jubilee Hills hinge on its ability to navigate these dynamics. A Muslim candidate like Feroz Khan could galvanize the community’s support, especially if AIMIM’s vote-splitting strategy is neutralized through backchannel negotiations. Reports suggest that AIMIM’s stance has softened since Congress came to power in December 2023, with Owaisi offering issue-based support during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, a senior AIMIM leader emphasized that any support would prioritize the welfare of Muslims, SCs, STs, and BCs, indicating that Congress must tread carefully to secure even tacit cooperation. Alternatively, a BC candidate backed by the caste census narrative could appeal to a broader electorate, especially if Congress highlights its governance achievements under Revanth Reddy, whose residence in Jubilee Hills makes the bypoll a prestige issue.

The bypoll’s outcome will also depend on BRS’s strategy, as the party has held the seat since Telangana’s formation. With AIMIM’s 2023 support bolstering BRS’s victory, Congress must counter any potential alliance between the two. The withdrawal of independent candidates like Naveen Yadav in past elections strengthened Congress’s position, and similar developments could be crucial. Ultimately, Congress must balance its outreach to Muslims and BCs while mitigating AIMIM’s influence. Whether it fields a Muslim candidate to directly challenge Owaisi’s narrative or a BC candidate to broaden its appeal, the decision will shape not only the by poll’s outcome but also Congress’s long-term prospects in Hyderabad’s complex political landscape.

AIMIM to support Opposition candidate Sudershan Reddy in V-P election

Hyderabad: AIMIM president Asaduddin Owaisi has announced his party's support for the opposition's vice-presidential candidate, B Sudershan Reddy. In a post on X, Owaisi has said the "Telangana CMO" spoke to him and requested him to support Reddy's candidature in the September 9 vice-presidential poll. "@TelanganaCMO spoke to me today and requested that we support Justice Sudershan Reddy as Vice President. @aimim_national will extend its support to Justice Reddy, a fellow Hyderabadi and a respected jurist," he said on Saturday. The Hyderabad MP said he spoke to Reddy, a former Supreme Court judge, and conveyed good wishes to him.The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is represented in the Lok Sabha by Owaisi.