El Nino shock hits kharif planting

Farmers face crop uncertainty while families brace for rising food bills and inflation

Commodity Desk

MUMBAI

India's kharif sowing season has begun on a weak note as strengthening El Nino conditions and a delayed southwest monsoon weigh on farm activity, raising concerns over crop production in the months ahead. 

According to an ICICI Bank Research report, sowing of key kharif crops has fallen below last year's levels, with pulses and oilseeds witnessing the sharpest decline. 

Pulses hit hardest

The report showed that total kharif sowing as of June 12 stood at 8.5 million hectares, down 3.9% from 8.8 million hectares during the same period last year. 

 The biggest setback was seen in pulses, where acreage dropped 43.2% year-on-year. Lower sowing of arhar, moong and urad has largely contributed to the sharp decline. Cotton acreage has also suffered, falling nearly 28% compared with the corresponding period last year. 

The research said the slowdown reflects the impact of deficient rainfall across major agricultural regions and growing uncertainty among farmers over weather conditions. 

El Nino concerns intensify

The report warned that El Nino conditions have strengthened significantly in recent weeks, with the relevant climate index crossing critical threshold levels. It noted that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already revised its rainfall forecast lower, increasing concerns over the progress of the monsoon season.  A stronger El Nino generally leads to below-normal rainfall in India, affecting crop planting, yields and rural incomes.

Monsoon deficit raises risks

The southwest monsoon remains 35% below normal so far this season. Central India has recorded the sharpest rainfall deficiency at 61% below the long-period average (LPA), while East India is 43% below normal. Several key farming states, including Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Bihar, have reported deficient rainfall, delaying sowing operations in many regions. 

Not all crop categories have been affected equally. Rice acreage is up 28.4% from a year ago, while coarse cereals sowing has increased 10.4%, partially offsetting weakness in pulses and cotton.  

 The report also highlighted that reservoir storage levels remain supportive. Reservoirs are currently filled to 28% of capacity, slightly below last year's 30% but above the long-term average of 24%. 

(With inputs from ANI)