Musk sees AI outpacing humans in a decade

Elon Musk has predicted that artificial intelligence (AI) will surpass the combined intelligence of humanity within the next five years, warning that humans could lose control of the technology within a decade while also ushering in an era of unprecedented prosperity.

Speaking to The Economist in his first interview since SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO, Musk said AI would soon outperform humans at almost every task. He forecast between 100 million and one billion humanoid robots could be deployed within five years, driving rapid economic growth. “I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in around five years,” Musk said, adding, the most likely outcome was “an age of amazing abundance”, provided there is no major global conflict.

Musk has previously argu­ed AI could make retirement savings and many forms of human labour largely irrelevant. He said AI’s rapid self-improvement makes it impos­sible to predict what lies beyo­nd the point at which machi­nes become smarter than humans, describing it as the technological “singularity”.

The International Moneta­ry Fund estimates about 40% of jobs worldwide are exposed to AI disruption, rising to 60% in advanced economies. Goldman Sachs has estimated that up to 300 million full-time jobs could be affected by automation, although the World Econo­mic Forum expects AI to create millions of new roles alongside those displaced.

While some researchers warn of widespread job losses and economic upheaval, others believe AI will transform work rather than eliminate it entirely. Many argue the bigger challenge will be how governments regulate AI and distribute the wealth it creates.