Crude futures slip lower as UAE exits OPEC bloc

Crude oil futures declined on Wednesday, tracking weakness in global markets after the United Arab Emirates announced its exit from the OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance. The development raised expectations of increased supply over the medium term, weighing on market sentiment despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange of India, crude oil for May delivery fell ₹68, or 0.72%, to ₹9,417 per barrel. Analysts said the decline largely mirrored global trends as traders reacted to the UAE’s decision to leave the producers’ group effective May 1.

In international markets, Brent crude for June delivery slipped 0.34% to $104.04 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell 0.68% to $99.25 per barrel in New York. Market participants noted that the UAE’s exit could gradually ease supply constraints, even though the immediate impact may remain limited. Analysts pointed out that persistent uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to underpin crude prices, preventing a sharper fall. 

These geopolitical risks have kept traders cautious, as any escalation could tighten supply further.According to analysts, the near-term direction of oil prices will depend on developments in the Persian Gulf and the timeline for resumption of oil flows through the key shipping route. 

Forecasts suggest Brent crude may average around $104 per barrel in the second quarter before moderating later in the year. Market participants are also monitoring currency movements and demand signals from major economies, particularly China and the US, for further cues.