El Nino threat looms over India farm sector ahead

India’s agriculture sector faces renewed uncertainty ahead of the 2026 southwest monsoon, with forecasts indicating a likely El Nino development that could disrupt rainfall patterns and impact crop output in the upcoming crop year.

Experts and market participants warn that the possible emergence of El Nino between June and September may adversely affect the kharif season, which is heavily dependent on monsoon rains. While the intensity of the phenomenon remains uncertain, its presence alone raises concerns over rainfall distribution and agricultural productivity.

Commodity expert G. Chandrashekhar said the impact of El Nino will depend largely on its severity and the spatial and temporal spread of monsoon rains. Even a mild event could disrupt rainfall patterns, affecting sowing and crop growth. According to the India IMD, there is a 62% probability of El Nino conditions developing during July-August and persisting through the end of 2026.  However, no such conditions are expected before June, offering a limited window of stability. 

El Nino, characterised by warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and weakening trade winds, is typically associated with hotter and drier conditions in India. This contrasts with La Nina, which generally supports stronger monsoon rainfall. Concerns are heightened as India has already witnessed deficient rainfall in recent months. January recorded 31.5% below-normal rainfall, while February saw a sharp 81.3% deficit. 

Although March rainfall was marginally above normal, it was unevenly distributed. Agriculture experts caution that low soil moisture levels could pose risks for kharif sowing.