IGC retains 2026-27 global foodgrain production estimate at 2.41 bn tonnes

Lower acreage, weaker yields may trigger first annual decline after four consecutive seasons of output growth

Commodity Desk MUMBAI

The International Grains Council (IGC) has retained its forecast for global foodgrain production in 2026-27 at 2.41 billion tonnes, while continuing to project a 3% year-on-year decline in output because of lower harvested area and weaker average yields.

  In its latest monthly update, the council said the expected decline could mark the first annual fall in global foodgrain production after four consecutive seasons of growth. 

 Despite the lower output outlook, global foodgrain consumption for 2026-27 has been maintained at 2.44 billion tonnes, supported by higher demand for wheat, maize and barley. The IGC also retained its estimate for global carry-over foodgrain stocks at 615 million tonnes. However, global foodgrain trade for 2026-27 is now projected at 446 million tonnes, down by 2 million tonnes from the previous estimate, mainly due to lower wheat and barley trade.

  For the current 2025-26 season, the council revised global foodgrain production upward by 3 million tonnes to 2.48 billion tonnes. The increase was largely attributed to stronger maize production in Argentina and South Africa.   Consumption for the year was also revised higher by 2 million tonnes to 2.43 billion tonnes, while global trade estimates were raised to 454 million tonnes.  In wheat, the IGC lowered its 2026-27 global production estimate slightly to 820 million tonnes from 821 million tonnes projected earlier.  

At the same time, wheat consumption was revised upward to 827 million tonnes, while carry-over stocks were reduced to 282 million tonnes.

 Global maize production for 2026-27 was kept unchanged at 1.30 billion tonnes. However, consumption and trade projections were marginally increased from the previous month’s estimates.  For 2025-26, maize production was revised higher to 1.33 billion tonnes. The council also reduced its global rice production estimate for 2026-27 by 3 million tonnes to 545 million tonnes.  It said higher rice output in India is expected to offset weaker production in other regions. 

 Global rice trade in 2027 is projected to touch a record 62 million tonnes due to stronger African demand. Meanwhile, global soybean production for 2026-27 is projected at a record 442 million tonnes, supported by expectations of larger harvests in major producing countries..