India GDP to grow 7% in FY27: BMI

India’s economy is expected to grow at 7 per cent in FY27, supported by a favourable policy environment, rising exports and reform-driven stimulus to investment and consumption, according to BMI, a Fitch Group company.

In its latest outlook, BMI projected GDP growth of 7.4 per cent for the current fiscal year (FY26) and 7 per cent for FY27, revising its earlier estimates upward. The agency said recent monetary, regulatory and fiscal measures are creating conditions for sustained economic momentum through 2026–27.

BMI noted that strong advanced estimates for FY26 GDP, improving US-bound merchandise exports over the past two months, and policy stability have strengthened India’s economic outlook. The National Statistics Office has also projected a 7.4 per cent expansion in FY26, indicating growth of around 7 per cent year-on-year in the second half of the fiscal.

The Indian economy had grown by 6.5 per cent in FY25, while quarterly performance in FY26 has been robust so far. Official data showed GDP growth of 7.8 per cent in the April–June quarter and 8.2 per cent in the July–September quarter. BMI expects growth to exceed 9 per cent year-on-year in the October–December quarter, saying the foundation for a strong third quarter has already been laid.

The report highlighted tax reforms in goods and services tax and personal income tax that have reduced the burden on households. It also pointed to a cumulative 125 basis point cut in the RBI’s policy rate last year, progress on labour codes, and the move to allow 100 per cent foreign ownership in insurance.

BMI said risks to the outlook remain balanced, linked largely to prospects of a future India–US trade deal that could lower tariffs on exports.