India is likely to record economic growth of around 7 per cent in the current financial year, slightly higher than the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October projection of 6.6 per cent, according to eminent economist and former IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath.

Speaking at the Times Network India Economic Conclave 2025, Gopinath said the IMF’s growth estimate was prepared before the National Statistical Office released the July–September quarter data, which showed a much stronger-than-expected expansion of 8.2 per cent.

“The IMF projection of 6.6 per cent came out in October, but its estimate for the second quarter growth was far lower than what actually happened,” she said. “Just doing the math, I would expect India’s GDP growth to move closer to 7 per cent.”

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India also raised its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.3 per cent from 6.8 per cent, citing robust performance in the second quarter. The economy recorded a six-quarter high growth of 8.2 per cent in Q2 of FY26, supported by resilient domestic demand despite global trade and policy uncertainties.

The IMF had revised India’s growth forecast upward in October from 6.4 per cent to 6.6 per cent, noting that strong domestic momentum was offsetting the impact of higher US tariffs on Indian exports.

Gopinath, now a Gregory and Ania Coffey Professor of Economics at Harvard University, said India’s long-term aspirations would depend on sustaining high growth over several decades. “If India can maintain growth rates close to 8 per cent for 20 years, it would move much closer to achieving its 2047 goals,” she said, adding that sustaining such growth would require continuous and deep structural reforms.

She also noted that India’s economic performance has been better than anticipated prior to the India–US trade tensions. Commenting on global trade, Gopinath said tariff levels have increased significantly but have not reached extreme levels. From the US perspective, she believes the peak of tariff hikes may be behind them.

“Tariffs have raised prices in the US and pushed up inflation, affecting affordability,” she said, adding that this reduces the incentive for further tariff increases, especially ahead of the 2026 US mid-term elections.

On India–US trade relations, Gopinath stressed the importance of cooperation, describing the US as a key economic partner for India. She said both countries should work toward mutually agreeable solutions, especially after relations were strained following the doubling of US tariffs on Indian goods in August.

Addressing questions on IMF assistance to Pakistan, Gopinath said the fund’s mandate is to support countries facing economic crises, which often arise due to a combination of macroeconomic, social, and geopolitical factors. She emphasized that IMF programmes are approved by its 195 member countries and are based on clearly defined policy conditions.

“The key question is always whether IMF support can genuinely help improve a country’s macroeconomic situation,” she said.

If India can maintain growth rates close to 8 per cent for 20 years, it would move much closer to achieving its 2047 goals

Gita Gopinath Former IMF Chief Economist