Barring any major disruption to the oil market, the world is expected to remain well supplied through the end of the decade

PTI New Delhi

India, the world's third-largest oil-consuming and importing nation, will lead global oil demand growth by a large margin, adding a steep 1 million barrels per day by 2030 on the back of stellar economic expansion, IEA said on Tuesday.

The global oil demand is expected to grow by 2.5 million barrels a day by the end of the decade, reaching a plateau near 105.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest report released Tuesday.

Barring any major disruption to the oil market, the world is expected to remain well supplied through the end of the decade, the global energy watchdog said, though rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East and unresolved trade tensions could cast a shadow over the outlook.

IEA forecast India's demand for crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries, to rise from 5.64 million bpd in 2024 to 6.66 million bpd in 2030. The country meets over 95 per cent of its oil needs through imports as domestic production is declining.

"India's oil demand will increase by a steep 1 million bpd over the forecast period - more than any other country - in the wake of stellar GDP expansion, at an average annual rate of 2.8 per cent," it said. The United States, the world's top oil consumer, may see demand peaking at 20.47 million bpd in 2025 (20.42 million bpd in 2024) before starting to fall and may end at 20.01 million bpd in 2030.

Chinese oil demand is projected to peak in 2027 when it will touch 16.95 million bpd (16.63 million bpd in 2024) before starting to decline and reach 16.66 million bpd in 2030. India, IEA said, will remain the world's fastest-growing major economy in 2025 for a fourth year running and is projected to overtake Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy this year.