Is Assam going to be a repeat of Bihar for Cong ahead of polls?

Amicable alliances will be harder to achieve in Borah’s absence, but Priyanka’s resolute leadership style can work to Cong’s advantage 

Back in 2015, Congress leader Himanta Biswa Sarma decided to invest in a party that had never won more than 12 per cent of the popular vote or an 8 per cent seat share in Assam. It proved a shrewd move; the BJP’s stock rose overnight to a 42 per cent vote share, and Sarma profited. Many speculators have since staked political capital on the BJP, and few have been disappointed. The latest to buy into the BJP is former Assam PCC chief Bhupen Kumar Borah. 

The defection, coming as it does on the eve of assembly elections, poses a serious challenge for Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and her ‘Team Assam’, particularly state in-charge Bhanwar Jitendra Singh, the titular Maharaja of Alwar. Shedding its habitual arrogance, the Congress high command and top brass made unprecedented efforts to persuade Borah to stay, with Rahul Gandhi reportedly spending all of 15 minutes on the phone with him. Not too long ago, Borah had claimed the BJP in Assam was a divided house. So many ex-Congressmen had joined that they formed a powerful coterie within the BJP, and this had led to infighting. He added that Sarma would, henceforth, not be allowed to induct more Congressmen, lest they dominate the old BJP hands.

Now, Borah himself is poised to join the aforesaid ex-Congress coterie! Ironically, he had publicly accused the CM of political opportunism and predicted his return to the Congress. The significance of Borah’s abrupt exit just before Priyanka Gandhi’s visit to the state has not been lost on Congress leaders. The shadow of his departure will hang over her meetings with party leaders and workers. Rumour has it that she delayed her visit by a day so that Jitendra Singh and the state party chief could make covert efforts to win Borah back to the Congress fold. The window is small, with Sarma announcing that Borah will be welcomed into the BJP on February 22.

Fears of a reprise of Bihar, where extraordinary mismanagement by the Congress leadership sank the party’s fortunes in 2025, are plaguing the party. Jitendra Singh is seen as an outsider with little understanding of the political dynamics of the state and, therefore, over-reliant on party MP Rakibul Hussain. In fact, Hussain’s strong hold over Gogoi was mentioned in Borah’s letter to Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge. 

The Gandhi siblings have a tendency to promote loyalists, which sometimes comes in the way of the party’s electoral prospects. This has been the case in Assam. Gaurav Gogoi, the son of three-time chief minister Tarun Gogoi, enjoys Rahul Gandhi’s confidence. While Gogoi certainly has a support base, he has not managed to carry the party organisation with him. He was a major factor in Himanta Sarma’s defection, an event that changed the political landscape of the state. In tandem with the then BJP general secretary, Ram Madhav, Sarma scripted the BJP’s spectacular victory in 2016 and was instrumental in boosting its fortunes across the Northeast.  Gogoi was promoted to state party chief (replacing Borah) last year and managed to alienate rather than placate Borah. The latter made no secret of the fact that he had been consistently undermined and ignored even while he was the PCC chief. In his resignation letter, he pointed to “opaque circumstances” surrounding Gogoi’s visits to Pakistan, highlighted in the report of a Sarma-appointed investigation. 

The whole episode underlines the fact that the Congress is not seen as a value investment because of its inability to accommodate the aspirations of regional leaders. Leaving the party is no longer seen as a ticket to political ‘vanvas’ (exile). Nor can the Congress claim that defectors to the BJP will end up being marginalised. Ideology alone cannot keep the party intact when self-interest is involved. 

Sarma’s rise in the BJP and his pan-Indian popularity with committed party voters make him something of a poster boy for other aspirants. He is living proof that ‘outsiders’ who have not sprung from the Sangh Parivar ecosystem can still make it big in the BJP, provided they display the requisite political acumen, administrative talent, and ideological alignment.

What can the Congress do to avoid another electoral debacle? Priyanka Gandhi may hold the key. She is focusing on selecting candidates in terms of winnability, a radical departure from Bihar, where—if state leaders are to be believed—deep pockets were an important criterion. Second, she must pick up where Borah left off. 

As the Assam PCC chief, Borah took the lead in negotiating alliances and was disturbed when the United Opposition Forum proved a non-starter in 2024. It was revived last year, but cracks have already appeared in the so-called Asom Sonmilito Morcha. Gandhi must take a pragmatic view on seat-sharing, keeping in mind the ethnic, regional, and linguistic diversity of Assam. Alliances are easy to announce, but the devil is always in the details of seat-sharing. 

To avoid the vote-cutting effect of the regional parties, Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad, which lost the Congress at least half a dozen seats in the 2021 assembly elections, an alliance is essential. Gogoi’s announcement that the Congress would contest 100 of 126 seats was perhaps premature, given the number of allies who must be accommodated. The third challenge for Priyanka Gandhi is resolving the stand-off with the Raijor Dal over the defection of two Congress MLAs. Amicable alliances will be harder to achieve in the absence of Borah, but her resolute leadership style can work to the advantage of the state Congress.