Karnataka leadership shift

Congress is unable to assess whether changing the State Chief Minister will help, or hurt, the party's prospects

Rahul Gandhi reportedly shifted focus during his Delhi meeting with Siddaramaiah from Cabinet reshuffle to leadership change, reminding him of the Congress power-sharing pact. After initially defending his government’s performance, Siddaramaiah is said to have agreed to honour the arrangement, paving the way for a smooth leadership transition in Karnataka

Anita Saluja 

With Karnataka Chief Minister D K Shiva Kumar finally realizing his political dream of assuming charge of the State, the ruling Congress finds itself in a dilemma. The Congress is unable to assess whether changing the State Chief Minister will help, or hurt, the party's electoral prospects, in the run up to the next Assembly elections in 2028.

Prolonged political wrangling had cast a shadow on governance in the State. In the intense bickering between Siddaramaiah and D K Shiva Kumar, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge fancied the prospect of his emerging as a compromise candidate for Chief Minister, the one post that always eluded him.

Choice of Kharge could have meant not only the first Dalit Chief Minister of Karnataka, but 39 per cent (SCs and STs 25 per cent, Muslims 14 per cent) consolidation behind the Congress. The Congress High Command decision has left both Kharge and Siddaramaiah disappointed.

For the past one month, at least, Shiva Kumar was making constant trips to Delhi, meeting with senior party leaders. His only demand was to honour the word given to him that after two-and-a-half years, he would succeed Siddaramaiah. The created a climate of political uncertainty in the State.

Rahul Gandhi decided to step in and assume charge of the situation. Ahead of his meeting with Siddaramaiah, Rahul Gandhi inquired from AICC General Secretary (Organization) K C Venugopal details about the power-sharing agreement drawn up in 2023.

Surprisingly, Rahul Gandhi kept senior party leaders in Karnataka in the dark, while the customary practice was to consult State leaders on an issue like leadership change. Instead, Rahul chose to consult only Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, who hails from the State, besides his closest aide, K C Venugopal.

Rahul Gandhi reportedly shifted focus during his Delhi meeting with Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah from Cabinet reshuffle to leadership change, reminding him of the Congress power-sharing pact. After initially defending his government’s performance, Siddaramaiah is said to have agreed to honour the arrangement, paving the way for a smooth leadership transition in Karnataka.

 Siddaramaiah achieved his ambition of becoming Karnataka’s longest-serving Chief Minister, surpassing S Nijalingappa and D Devaraj Urs. But replacing him poses challenges for Congress, as he remains the party’s strongest OBC face and a key leader of the influential Kuruba community.

He also revived the AHINDA coalition of minorities, OBCs and Dalits, which became Congress’ core support base in Karnataka. The main question is whether Congress can retain this social coalition after his exit. D K Shivakumar may try to offset the loss by consolidating Vokkaliga support, though JD(S) leaders H D Deve Gowda and H D Kumaraswamy continue to dominate the community.

Why, in the first place, did the Congress junk Siddaramaiah? Primarily, it is a question of rewarding loyalty. D K Shiva Kumar is a tried, tested trouble shooter, crisis manager and political strategist for the Congress. In 2002, Shiva Kumar helped Vilasrao Deshmukh when he faced trust vote in Maharashtra. In 2017, when Sonia Gandhi's Political Adviser Ahmed Patel's election to Rajya Sabha from Gujarat Assembly faced a serious challenge, Shiva Kumar swiftly shifted Congress MLAs to Bengaluru resort, helping the party win the prestigious contest.

Similarly, in the Karnataka Assembly elections in 2018, when BJP emerged as the single-largest party, Congress offered Chief Minister post to H D Kumaraswamy of Janata Dal-S. But, when BJP leader B S Yeddyurappa was sworn in as the State Chief Minister, Shiva Kumar swiftly shifted the MLAs by buses to Hyderabad, to safeguard the flock.

Shiva Kumar helped the Telangana Congress during the State Assembly elections in 2023. Besides recently in Assam, Shiva Kumar played a key role when the Congress made a determined bid to win back the key North-Eastern State from the BJP. He worked similarly in Rajasthan and Keralam.

When Shiv Kumar was put behind the bars in Delhi in 2019 in ED case, the then Congress President Sonia Gandhi visited him in Tihar Jail, as an expression of the party's solidarity with him.

It was difficult for the Congress First Family not to support Shiva Kumar's claim for Karnataka Chief Minister post. The Congress was compelled to take a calculated risk. The challenge for Shiva Kumar now is how best he carries along with him the Siddaramaiah group in the party. Now it remains to be seen how exactly it pans out politically, especially in the run up to the Karnataka Assembly elections in 2028.

(Writer is Delhi-based senior journalist, analyst and political commentator. Views are personal.)