El Nino hits the production of the 2026-27 Kharif crop

El Nino may intensify in the Oct/Nov/Dec months. That’s the time for the completion of the Kharif harvest and the planting of Rabi crops.

The four-month southwest monsoon cycle (June to September 2026) in the country has entered the withdrawal phase. In June this year, the monsoon started 4 days late and, thereafter, stalled for almost three weeks. Early July rains revived hopes, but precipitation in August and September was less than satisfactory.

As a result, by the end of September the country faced a rainfall deficit of 15% (-15%). The temporal and spatial distribution of rains has been rather uneven. Out of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions, as many as 19 subdivisions, representing 51% of the national area, faced deficient rains. There are borderline cases even among the rest of the subdivisions that are said to be ‘normal’.

The cumulative rainfall map shows key growing areas—Punjab, Haryana, parts of Rajasthan, parts of Gujarat (Saurashtra and Kutch), parts of Maharashtra (Marathwada), as well as almost the whole of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka, and Assam and Northeast—being in the red, with a varying intensity of moisture stress.

The ravage inflicted by El Nino-induced dry conditions is clearly visible. The situation worsened with high costs of fertilisers and their limited availability due to the military action in the Persian Gulf region.

The table above shows Kharif 2025 and 2026 acreage, the production target for 2026, forecast production in 2026, and government-estimated production in Kharif 2025.

The production forecast for this Kharif season is based on this author’s proprietary research.

In most cases, the planted area is lower than last year’s Kharif. Poor distribution of rainfall has impacted the planted area, yields, and production. Rice, pulses, cotton, soybean, groundnut, and sugarcane crops are affected.

The Kharif 2026-27 harvest will fall short of the season’s production target and below last year’s government estimate. In some regions, crop quality may be affected. The government usually releases its first advance estimate by the end of September, but this season, even as of October 12, it is not published. 

A lower harvest size would mean the supply-demand fundamentals of many crops will tighten further. Rice buffer stocks of 40 million tonnes are a source of comfort. At the same time, imports of many commodities are set to increase: pulses about 7.5 million tonnes; vegetable oils 16-17 million tonnes; and cotton over 7 million bales.

High international energy costs and a weak rupee may exacerbate the price situation and heighten inflation expectations. It is likely the government may tighten the screws on agri-trade.

How does the future look? There’s a bigger alarm. According to meteorological reports, El Nino may further intensify in the Oct/Nov/Dec months. That’s precisely the time for the completion of the Kharif harvest and the planting of Rabi crops (mainly wheat, rice, maize, oilseeds (rapeseed/mustard and groundnut) and pulses (chickpea and lentil). Adequate winter rains are critical for the Rabi crops. 

Already, Indian wheat is at the limit of heat tolerance. Warmer days in Jan/Feb and heatwaves in March can reduce the harvest size. Fodder availability for livestock will be a challenge. Reservoir storage levels are less than satisfactory and may turn critical in the first quarter of 2027. 

So what are the policy options open to New Delhi? Already, basic customs duty on palm, soy, and sunflower oils has been slashed; but the import of refined oils deserves more support by way of duty reduction. As for pulses, a liberal import policy continues until March 2027 and may be extended. Some restriction on the diversion of rice, maize, and sugarcane for ethanol is not ruled out. 

G CHANDRASHEKHAR