On the final days of 2025, silver prices delivered one of the most volatile spectacles in recent commodity market history. MCX Silver March futures in India soared to an unprecedented all-time high of Rs 2,54,174 per kilogram earlier in the session, briefly crossing the Rs 2.5 lakh mark for the first time ever. The white metal had been on a tear throughout the year, fuelled by surging industrial demand, persistent supply shortages, and strong investor interest.

However, the euphoria quickly turned to panic as prices crashed sharply, plummeting by a staggering Rs 21,000 per kilogram in just one hour of afternoon trade on December 29, 2025. This dramatic reversal sent shockwaves through domestic markets, with futures dropping to an intraday low around Rs2,33,120 per kg. Globally, silver mirrored the turmoil, briefly surpassing $80 per ounce before sliding below $75 amid heightened volatility.

The sharp correction was attributed to a combination of factors. Heavy profit-taking followed the overheated rally, particularly as year-end position squaring occurred across global exchanges like COMEX and the London Bullion Market. Additionally, initial optimism about potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks — following discussions between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — briefly eased geopolitical tensions and reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals.

However, reports of a drone attack on a Russian presidential residence, as stated by President Putin, quickly dashed those hopes and contributed to renewed uncertainty. A senior economist emphasized that such expiry-day corrections are common in commodity futures, especially after sharp monthly gains, and noted that prices had already begun recovering significantly by the broadcast's end, climbing back toward $76 per ounce internationally. He highlighted that Indian domestic factors like festivals or weddings have only marginal influence, with global price discovery dominating.

A senior executive from a financial services firm pointed to additional pressures, including China's recent decision to hike margins on silver trading (up to 25%) and impending export restrictions effective January 1, 2026. These rules require government licenses for exporters, effectively tightening the flow of refined silver from the world's largest producer and refiner. This, as per him has worsened  an already tight market, marked by five consecutive years of physical shortages, massive stock market inflows and strong industrial consumption in solar panels, EVs, electronics, and AI-related equipment.

An economics professor and director of a finance research institute attributed the dip partly to year-end profit booking by international traders and companies closing books, alongside robust demand from India's chip manufacturing push and ongoing festive seasons. Yogendra Kapoor remained optimistic, underscoring silver's growing industrial role in EVs, solar, and electronics — sectors benefiting from government promotion and rising rural-urban adoption in India.

Looking toward 2026, opinions diverged but leaned cautiously bullish on the long term. While silver's rapid 175% year-to-date surge in 2025 (far outpacing gold) has raised concerns about overextension and volatility, structural factors remain supportive: chronic supply deficits, China's stockpiling and export curbs, and relentless industrial demand (with nearly 50% of silver consumed irreversibly in tech applications). Experts suggested potential upside to $95–$100 per ounce globally (translating to Rs 3 lakh+ domestically), but warned retail investors against chasing highs. Many advised caution, recommending systematic investments (SIP-style) during corrections rather than lump-sum entries, and favouring gold for more stable, central-bank-backed exposure amid de-dollarization trends. Startups eyeing silver-related opportunities — such as solar installations under government schemes or semiconductor support — were encouraged, though experts noted emerging research into silver alternatives due to shortages.

As 2025 closed with continued swings (including further pullbacks on December 31), silver's journey illustrates the metal's dual nature: a glittering industrial powerhouse and a speculative asset prone to sharp corrections. Investors are urged to track global cues, geopolitical developments, and supply dynamics closely, as the white metal promises both opportunity and risk in the year ahead.