Final calls: No clear winner yet

1. Close fight. Some Undecided voters haven’t made up their minds yet.
2. Female turnout decides. More women = NDA; more men = Mahagathbandhan.
3. Congress vs. BJP/JD(U) in 50 seats will be decisive.
4. NDA has edge ahead, but Nitish fatigue and Mahagathbandhan’s campaign momentum are X-factors.

As Bihar braces for the first phase of polling next week in a two-phase election ending with counting on November 14, political analysts are calling the 2025 assembly battle one of the tightest in recent memory. A special discussion featuring four veteran pollsters dissected the shifting alliances, voter demographics, and leadership dynamics that could tip the scales in a state where a mere 12,700-vote margin decided the 2020 outcome. The panel unanimously agreed: 2025 will not be a 2020 redux, but a distinctly different fight shaped by realigned coalitions and evolving voter behaviour.

Alliance arithmetic tilts, but margins remain fragile

In 2020, the NDA scraped through with 125 seats against the Mahagathbandhan’s 110, despite identical vote shares. The key difference this time? Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which contested separately and dented JD(U) prospects last time, is now firmly within the NDA fold. One of the pollsters opined that had LJP been with NDA in 2020, they would have won 158 seats, pointing to the damage Paswan inflicted on Nitish Kumar’s party.

Conversely, Mukesh Sahani’s Vikasheel Insaan Party(VIP), previously with NDA, has switched to the Mahagathbandhan—a smaller shift but one that could matter in close contests. Voter roll changes add another layer: over 20 lakh deceased and 14 lakh migrated voters removed, with 21 lakh new voters added. “Turnout will be decisive,” one of the pollsters warned, noting Bihar’s historically low 55–57% participation compared to the national 63–65%.

Women vs. men: The gender gap that could crown the winner

A striking feature of Bihar’s electorate is its gender turnout skew—women vote at 55%, men at 45%. An eminent psephologist highlighted a stark divide in voting intent mentioning that NDA led by six points among women; Mahagathbandhan by three among men.” The outcome, he said, hinges on how much women outperform men at the booths. “If female turnout exceeds male by a wide margin, NDA gains. Otherwise, advantage Mahagathbandhan.”  was the commonly expressed opinion. The NDA’s Rs 10,000 cash transfer to 1.4 crore women under a pre-election scheme has reached bank accounts—not just promised. Observers pointed out that it was “real money in hand,”, contrasting it with unfulfilled poll pledges that failed elsewhere. Yet, they cautioned that women may reward NDA, but youth discontent could counterbalance.

Youth power: 1 in 4 Voters, but will they show up?

One in four Bihar voters is aged 18–30—a factor which socialized almost entirely under Nitish Kumar’s rule (barring a brief RJD interlude). They are being termed as “critical X-factor,” cutting across caste, gender, and alliance lines. However, a journalist covering the elections with reports from the ground opined that while anti-incumbency was real, so was pro-NDA sentiment. Many youth are migrants who rarely vote. Yet anecdotal evidence suggests change: In Karnataka, Bihari youth were booking tickets to return and vote. Jobs, local employment, and trust in governance—not just caste—was said be the reason to sway them, if at all it does.

Leadership: Nitish fatigue vs. Tejashwi surge vs. Modi magic

When asked their preferred chief minister, voters ranked Tejashwi Yadav highest at 36.2% , followed by Chirag Paswan (23.2%) and Nitish Kumar (15.-worthy 9%). Add Nitish, Chirag, and Samrat Choudhary (NDA allies), and the alliance narrows the gap significantly. One of the pollsters dropped a bombshell revealing that there was a fatigue with Nitish—even among NDA voters who want a BJP CM. He revealed that only 5% of NDA supporters prefer a non-BJP chief minister. “Modi scores far higher than Nitish. BJP has never ruled Bihar directly—there’s enthusiasm for that.” he said. However, this was countered with the argument that BJP couldn’t  win without Nitish’s 15% core.

Prashant Kishor: Spoiler or game-changer?

The Jan Suraj founder, debuting with 22–23% in trackers, has shifted the narrative. Seven out of ten of his voters come from the NDA camp, but at the same time where seems to be a caution warned-In bypolls, he damaged Mahagathbandhan 80–90% where he polled around 10%. His base? Upper-caste, Muslim, male, middle-class youth. However, there seems to be an opinion that due to his statement that prohibition would be lifted if his party comes to power, women do not seem to be too eager to vote for him. At the same time, political circles remain sceptical opining that popularity doesn’t guarantee seats as voters normally bet on winners.

One pre poll data shows deep caste polarization: Yadavs (83%) and Muslims (76%) with Mahagathbandhan; upper castes, most OBCs and even Musahars (65%) with NDA. Women voted near-equally (37% vs. 38%).As Bihar heads to the polls, one thing is clear: in a state where 243 seats hang on slivers of turnout, transfers, and trust, every vote—and every demographic—will count. The Ganga’s waters have flowed, but the battle remains too close to call.