Jubilee Hills By-Poll Snub, Its Shadow Over NDA Ties

metro india news  I hyderabad

The upcoming Jubilee Hills Assembly by-election on November 11, has unexpectedly thrust a spotlight on the fragile undercurrents of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). With over 3 lakh voters—more than half estimated to be from the Seemandhra community—the upscale Hyderabad constituency represents a microcosm of the enduring Andhra-Telangana schism.

As campaigns intensify, a perceived slight against Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has ignited whispers of discord within the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena troika that swept to power in Andhra Pradesh just 18 months ago. The Telangana BJP's decision to invite Deputy CM and Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan for star campaigning while side-lining Naidu and his son, Nara Lokesh, has left TDP cadres fuming and analysts pondering: Could this be the first fissure in an alliance forged on mutual desperation?

The by-poll, triggered by the death of sitting BRS MLA Maganti Gopinath.

Reports confirm that Telangana BJP leaders have indeed approached Pawan Kalyan, the Telugu cinema icon turned politician whose Jana Sena swept 21 Assembly seats in Andhra's 2024 polls, to rally his star power. His appeal, untainted by the old regional binaries, could sway young and apolitical voters. However, the conspicuous absence of an invitation to Naidu—the TDP supremo and a linchpin of the NDA's 2024 Andhra triumph—has fueled speculation. TDP sources in Hyderabad, speaking anonymously, reveal that local leaders recently petitioned Naidu during visits to Amaravati, urging the party to contest or at least back the BJP visibly. Naidu's response was non-committal, a far cry from the alliance dharma expected in NDA circles.

This snub isn't isolated; it echoes deeper anxieties within Telangana BJP ranks. Naidu's public persona, forged during his 1995-2004 and 2014-2019 stints as Andhra CM, evokes the pre-2014 united Andhra era—a ghost that still haunts Telangana's psyche. The 2014 bifurcation, championed by then-undivided Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now BRS), was marred by Naidu's aggressive push for Hyderabad as a joint capital, stoking resentments that BRS chief K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) masterfully exploits. Inviting Naidu risks rekindling these "Andhra dominance" tropes, potentially consolidating BRS votes. As one BJP strategist quipped off-record, "Pawan's a hero; Naidu's a reminder."

For TDP's Telangana footprint—once a formidable force with 15 MLAs in undivided Andhra's 2009 Assembly—the exclusion stings deeper. In the 2023 Telangana polls, TDP voluntarily sat out, prioritizing a do-or-die battle in Andhra where Naidu faced incarceration on corruption charges and a crushing 2019 defeat to Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSRCP. That gamble paid off spectacularly: The TDP-led alliance clinched 164 of 175 seats in 2024, with TDP alone securing 135. 

Emboldened, TDP's 5,000-odd Hyderabad cadres now clamor for revival, eyeing the 10-15% Andhra-origin vote bank across urban seats. "We've waited nine years; it's time to reclaim our space," a senior TDP functionary told local media.

The real peril lies in escalation. Naidu, ever the pragmatist, has a checkered history with the BJP that underscores his willingness to walk away when cornered. In 1998, TDP withdrew support from Atal Bihari Vajpayee's NDA government over the Ayodhya temple issue, contributing to its one-vote Lok Sabha defeat—though Naidu rejoined for the 1999 polls. More dramatically, in March 2018, TDP exited Modi's NDA mid-term, yanking two ministers and moving a no-confidence motion over the denial of Special Category Status (SCS) for Andhra post-bifurcation—a promise BJP had made in its 2014 manifesto. Naidu lambasted the "injustice" to Andhra, citing stalled Polavaram irrigation projects and capital Amaravati's funding woes. The move, timed after TDP's poor performance in Andhra local body polls, isolated him politically until his 2019 drubbing. Re-entering the NDA fold in 2023, Naidu extracted cabinet berths for TDP's K. Rammohan Naidu and others plus Andhra's long-delayed package in the 2024 Union Budget.

Today, with TDP holding 16 Lok Sabha seats and Naidu as a kingmaker in Modi's third term, the stakes are higher. Andhra's development—Rs 15 lakh crore investments promised, including the Vadhavan mega-port—hinges on central largesse. A Jubilee Hills slight could embolden Naidu's hawks, who already murmur about seat-sharing inequities in past alliances.

But history suggests restraint. Naidu's 2018 exit was a calculated bluff that backfired; he later admitted TDP's NDA loyalty persists for Andhra's growth. Pawan Kalyan, the alliance's "man of the match" in 2024, acts as a bridge—his uninvited enthusiasm could pull Naidu in. For BJP, alienating Naidu risks ceding Andhra's 25 Lok Sabha seats to opposition resurgence, especially with YSRCP regrouping under Jagan.

As Jubilee Hills votes on November 11, the by-poll's outcome—BRS's projected win could dent Congress's 64-seat majority—may eclipse this subplot. But the Naidu non-invite lingers as a cautionary tale: In India's coalition chessboard, perceived insults can fracture even the sturdiest pacts.