Consensus between various predictions of GDP growth rate places Q2 GDP between 7.0% and 7.3%, implying first-half growth near 7.5% alongside Q1’s 7.8%. On monetary policy, the experts agreed December is a close call 

India’s festival season, combined with recent GST cuts, has delivered a clear lift to consumer demand, with auto sales posting double-digit growth during key festive periods. A private news channel’s proprietary data shows passenger vehicle sales jumped 23% from Navratri to Diwali, while two-wheeler sales rose 22% over the same window. However, when measured from Ganesh Chaturthi—when GST reductions were anticipated—growth moderates to 11% for cars and 12% for two-wheelers, suggesting some demand was pulled forward in anticipation of lower taxes.

Industry insiders project full-year car sales growth at around 5%, with two-wheelers expected to expand 8–9%. October GST collections, reflecting September transactions, rose a modest 4.6% year-on-year, with domestic collections up just 2%. Economists attribute the subdued tax take to consumers delaying purchases until the GST cuts took effect on September 22.

A Chief Economist in a multi national bank argued the GST cuts have “worked,” with firms passing on price reductions evident as per recent figures. She highlighted double-digit auto sales growth even when including August, rising bank credit in industry and services, and manufacturing index data showing domestic new orders outpacing export declines. Corporate input purchases in October signal production will spill into November and possibly December.

There is another section of corporate India which acknowledged a festive jump in rural and urban demand but called it “expected” due to pent-up consumption post-GST cuts. They noted that urban indicators remained moderate pre-festival and stressed the need to see if demand sustains into November, December, and Q1 2026.They described auto sales as “noisy but broad-based,” especially in entry-level cars where demand had been lacklustre. They also pointed out that GST on imports grew 14% over the past two months—double last year’s pace—suggesting stimulus may be leaking via higher imports.

Consensus between various predictions of GDP growth rate places Q2 GDP between 7.0% and 7.3%, implying first-half growth near 7.5% alongside Q1’s 7.8%. On monetary policy, the experts agreed December is a close call hinging on a U.S.-India trade deal. Economists see a “strong chance” of a rate cut if no deal materializes, citing post-Diwali demand fade and export slowdown risks (potentially costing 0.7 percentage points annually). They set a “low bar” for easing, noting inflation tracking below RBI’s 1.8% Q3 forecast and core liquidity surplus shrinking from Rs 5 lakh crore to Rs 3.5 lakh crore amid aggressive forex intervention.

On currency, financial experts called the rupee’s path “extremely binary.” A favourable deal slashing U.S. tariffs from 50% to 20% could drive USD/INR to 86.50; absence of clarity risks 90. She sees the current account deficit at 1–1.2% of GDP.They expect depreciation regardless, forecasting 88–89.50 in six months and 89 in FY27, citing export softness, fading Russian oil discounts, and oil price risks.The discussion underscored renewed twin-deficit concerns: current account likely above 1% of GDP, balance-of-payments strains, and lower-than-expected tax buoyancy constraining fiscal space. Yet the panel’s positive takeaway remains—an upside bias to growth, with 7% looking increasingly attainable for both Q2 and FY26.