India to account for 8.2 mn bpd of total oil demand growth

Informist mumbai / New Delhi

Global oil demand is expected to grow to nearly 123 million barrels per day by 2050, an increase of 19.2 million barrels per day from 2024, with developing economies, particularly India, leading the growth, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its World Oil Outlook 2025. 

The OPEC dismissed the notion of an imminent peak in oil demand, citing robust consumption trends in transport, petrochemicals, and aviation sectors. "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon," the report said, highlighting the large share of oil in the global energy mix. Oil is set to maintain the largest share in the energy mix in 2050 at just below 30%. The combined share of oil and gas is expected to stay above 50% between 2024 and 2050, the report said. 

From 103.7 million barrels per day in 2024, global oil demand is projected to rise by 19.2 million barrels per day to 122.9 million barrels per day in 2050, with India alone contributing 8.2 million barrels per day of the increase; the largest among all countries. 

India's total oil demand is set to increase to 13.7 million barrels per day by 2050 from 5.6 million barrels per day in 2024. Although an increase in overall oil demand is expected across most sectors, road transportation is projected to witness the most significant growth, rising by 4.6 million barrels per day to 6.9 million barrels per day in 2050. The exponential expansion of India's passenger car fleet will be the key factor driving this growth. 

OPEC expects India's passenger car fleet to rise to more than 240 million in 2050. Moreover, commercial vehicles are expected to increase fourfold by 2050. "Simultaneously, the market penetration of EVs in India is likely to remain limited, highlighting the country's expected continued reliance on ICE-powered vehicles and a significant oil demand rise in the road transportation sector," the report said.