Bihar 2025

Anita Saluja I New Delhi :

As political temperatures rise in Bihar, the ruling NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan are locked in a fierce contest for the upcoming Assembly elections. Rahul Gandhi’s Vote Adhikaar Yatra has sparked momentum, but concerns linger—can the Congress sustain it until polling day? And more importantly, can it convert public sentiment into votes without a strong ground-level organization?

The Bihar elections are shaping into a suspense thriller. The Congress and RJD are determined to regain ground, while the BJP remains strategically calm, leaving opponents guessing. The political arithmetic still favors the NDA, seen as a formidable force. The BJP retains solid support among upper castes, while Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) commands loyalty from EBCs. Chirag Paswan’s LJP(V) brings in a chunk of Dalit voters, and the BJP is actively courting Maha-Dalits too.

Adding to NDA’s strength are allies like Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM. Meanwhile, AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi has confirmed he won’t join the INDIA bloc and will contest independently. His party won five seats in 2020, and his presence could dent the Opposition’s Muslim vote. Similarly, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party might split anti-incumbency votes—again, to the NDA’s advantage.

However, the BJP’s worry remains Nitish Kumar’s low-profile role, and how that could affect the alliance's cohesion. PM Narendra Modi continues to spearhead the BJP campaign, pushing back against the Congress-RJD narrative. The BJP had successfully weakened Lalu Yadav’s RJD years ago, which remains limited to its core MY (Muslim-Yadav) base and has struggled to expand.

On the other side, the Congress is working hard to regain lost ground. Once supported by Brahmins, Dalits, and minorities, it suffered a massive setback post the Babri Masjid demolition in 1992. Brahmins moved to the BJP, Dalits to the BSP, and minorities to regional fronts.

Rahul Gandhi is now trying to rebuild and expand this base by focusing on OBCs through his Caste Census pitch. His campaign seeks to unite Dalits, Adivasis, OBCs, and minorities—90% of Bihar’s population—under one broad social justice agenda. His push for proportional representation of weaker sections in decision-making goes beyond VP Singh’s Mandal-era OBC politics.

A key figure in this strategy is Anil Jaihind Yadav, a Sharad Yadav loyalist, now heading the AICC OBC Department. He’s tasked with expanding Congress’ reach among EBCs. Rahul is also fixing the Congress’s internal machinery in Bihar, a state where earlier AICC in-charges often deferred to Lalu Yadav, allowing the RJD to dictate terms.

Now, with trusted lieutenant Krishna Allavuru as AICC in-charge, Rahul has reclaimed control. Allavuru has been touring Bihar, reviving the party’s base. Firebrand leader Kanhaiya Kumar’s Padayatra has further energized the cadre.

Candidate selection is also being tightly managed. Rahul has packed the Screening Committee with loyalists, led by AICC Treasurer Ajay Maken. MPs Praniti Shinde, a young Dalit voice, and Imran Pratapgarhi, head of the Minorities Department, are key members expected to shape the final candidate list.

For perhaps the first time, Rahul Gandhi is leading from the front as a full-time politician, signaling clear command and intent. Whether this transformation can shift electoral outcomes in Bihar remains the big question.

With the 243-member Bihar Assembly’s term ending on November 22, the new House must be formed before then. The Election Commission will also have to factor in Diwali (October 20) and Chhath (October 25–28) when scheduling polling—likely to be held in two or three phases.

 (Writer is Delhi-based 

Senior Journalist and Political Commentator. Views are personal.)