The escalating conflict between the United States and Venezuela is unlikely to have any significant impact on India’s trade or energy security, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The think tank said India’s economic exposure to Venezuela is already very limited due to years of sanctions and a sharp decline in bilateral trade.

The statement comes in the wake of a major military operation carried out by US forces in Venezuela on January 4, during which President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured and taken to the United States to face multiple charges, including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. While the development has drawn global attention, GTRI said its economic implications for India remain negligible.

GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said India’s trade relationship with Venezuela has steadily weakened over the past several years. He noted that although India was once a major buyer of Venezuelan crude oil during the 2000s and 2010s, bilateral engagement declined sharply after 2019 following the imposition of stricter US sanctions. These sanctions forced Indian refiners and companies to reduce oil imports and scale back commercial activities to avoid secondary sanctions.

As a result, India’s trade with Venezuela is now marginal and on a declining trend. In FY2025, India’s total imports from Venezuela were valued at just USD 364.5 million. Crude oil made up USD 255.3 million of this figure, reflecting a steep drop of 81.3 per cent compared to crude imports worth USD 1.4 billion in FY2024. The sharp fall underlines how sanctions have already disrupted energy trade between the two countries.

India’s exports to Venezuela have also remained modest. In FY2025, exports were estimated at USD 95.3 million, with pharmaceuticals emerging as the leading export category at USD 41.4 million. Other sectors have seen limited activity, further indicating the subdued nature of bilateral trade.

Srivastava said that given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and the considerable geographical distance between the two nations, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India’s economy. He added that India has diversified its crude oil import sources over the years, reducing reliance on any single country or region.

While Venezuela holds around 18 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves—more than Saudi Arabia at about 16 per cent, Russia at around 5–6 per cent, or the United States at roughly 4 per cent—India’s dependence on Venezuelan oil has diminished significantly. Consequently, the ongoing US–Venezuela crisis is unlikely to alter India’s trade dynamics or energy security outlook in any substantial way.