These polls represent high stakes for all major parties, particularly the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which aims to expand its footprint amid a narrative of national security, demographic changes, and anti-corruption drives

As India steps into 2026, the political landscape is poised for a seismic shift with assembly elections slated in five crucial states: West Bengal, Assam, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. These polls represent high stakes for all major parties, particularly the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which aims to expand its footprint amid a narrative of national security, demographic changes, and anti-corruption drives. For the BJP, fresh off victories in Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Bihar in recent years, the goal is a clean sweep—a '5-0' triumph that could solidify its dominance across the nation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has emphasized economic reforms and rapid growth, positioning India as the world's fourth-largest economy, but the elections will test whether this momentum translates into breakthroughs in traditionally resistant southern and eastern bastions.

The BJP's campaign rhetoric, as articulated by leaders like Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, centres on infiltration and demographic shifts as existential threats. In West Bengal, Shah described the fight not merely as a political contest but a "civilizational battle" to preserve India's cultural heritage against what he termed a "dangerous demographic shift" due to illegal immigration. He warned that infiltration is a national security issue, amplifying concerns in states like Assam, where Muslims constitute about 35% of the population.

Sarma echoed this, advocating for a "foreigner-free" voter list through special electoral revisions. The party's strategy hinges on counter-polarization, targeting minority-heavy demographics—27% Muslims in West Bengal and nearly 45% Muslims and Christians in Kerala—to rally Hindu voters around themes of identity and security. For the opposition, particularly the Congress and its allies in the INDI bloc, these elections pose an existential crisis. Rahul Gandhi's party has suffered serial defeats, shrinking its influence and exposing fractures within the alliance.

In Tamil Nadu, tensions simmer between the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and Congress, with allies like the Left criticizing each other over issues like "bulldozer justice" in Congress-ruled Karnataka. Kerala presents a direct clash between Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), while in West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) under Mamata Banerjee faces BJP's aggressive push.

The opposition accuses the BJP of using central agencies like the Enforcement Directorate to coerce alliances and suppress dissent, while regional satraps defend their fortresses by portraying the BJP as an "outsider" or "North Indian" party alien to local cultures. BJP leaders on the other hand emphasized the BJP's anti-infiltration plank in Bengal, arguing that demographic changes threaten the state's cultural heritage and predicting a TMC ouster. They accused Chief Minister Mamta Banerjee of harbouring illegal immigrants as a vote bank and failing to provide land for border fencing. Countering this, a section of political analysts and journalists dismissed the BJP's narrative as divisive, pointing out the lack of convictions in corruption cases against TMC leaders and challenged the BJP to produce lists of identified infiltrators from the NRC process. He highlighted harassment during NRC exercises in Assam, including elderly citizens forced to prove their nationality, and argued that Bengal's voters had rejected polarization in 2021 and 2024 after briefly favoring the BJP in 2019. There is also a section of observers who criticize the central government for not deporting enough illegal immigrants despite promises, citing Assam's 40% Bangladeshi-origin electorate.

In Tamil Nadu, the discussion turned to polarization and development. DMK leaders praised the state's rejection of religious politics, crediting inclusive growth for Tamil Nadu's top rankings in GDP (11.9% growth), social indices like women's employment and education. They accused the BJP of mixing religion with politics and labeled the AIADMK-BJP alliance as opportunistic, driven by fear of central probes. AIADMK spokespersons however rebutted, portraying the DMK as a "dynasty" focused on the Stalin family rather than development, citing failures in law and order, unfulfilled promises and corporate flight to states like Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. They predicted an AIADMK-led NDA victory, dismissing DMK's anti-BJP narrative as ineffective in assembly polls.

A congress leaning columnist broadened the debate to national concerns, questioning India's direction under BJP rule. He cited incidents like the killing of 24-year-old Angel Chakma in Dehradun amid anti-Chinese sentiment, a BJP leader's bail in a rape case despite pressure allegations, attacks on Christians during Christmas, and West Bengal BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari's call for a "Gaza-type solution" as signs of rising hate and RSS influence. He urged reflection on societal divisions, warning of ethnic cleansing rhetoric, but faced pushback from BJP leaders, who accused him of selective outrage and noted crimes in opposition-ruled states too.

In Kerala, a CPI leader acknowledged a 4% vote drop in recent local body polls but remained optimistic about retaining power, citing united fronts and development gains. He downplayed the setback as not indicative of assembly outcomes, emphasizing Kerala's shifting voting patterns. BJP however countered by highlighting BJP's gains, including a municipal corporation win, and accused the LDF of corruption like the gold scam involving the Chief Minister.

The debate underscored the polarized narratives shaping 2026: the BJP's push for dominance through security and identity issues versus the opposition's defence of regional autonomy, secularism and anti-corruption claims. Accusations flew on all sides—electoral bonds, selective prosecutions, and alliance opportunism—revealing deep rifts. As alliances fracture and demographics play a pivotal role, the outcomes could redraw India's political map, testing whether the BJP can achieve its '5-0' ambition or if regional forces will hold their ground in this high-stakes battle for existence.