Trump’s proclaimed American golden age and anachronistic policies are contradictory, and may deplete his political capital rapidly. 

Donald Trump became the 47th US President on January 20, and his Republican Party captured both houses of US Congress, creating the political trifecta. The US Supreme Court already has a 6-3 pro-Republican majority. He won the popular vote but fell below fifty percent, making victory closer than he claims, reminiscent of BJP’s performance in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

But he radiates arrogance, with few checks on his power. His nominees to the cabinet and cabinet-level positions reflect this, being selected not for experience or skill set but loyalty to Trump and his ideology.

Although voted to fix the economy and the immigration mess, his executive orders covered his populist election promises and prejudices. Even Vice President J.D. Vance thought that pardons for January 6 Capitol attackers would exclude those who committed violence, especially against policemen.

Trump granted a blanket pardon to 1500, including the sentence commutation of those guilty of armed violence or sedition. As some Republicans grumbled, released notorious far-right leaders of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers sought vengeance. 

Some Trump decisions were expected. He declared a “border emergency”, threatening to use all means, including the military, to seal the borders and begin deportation of undocumented persons. He eliminated “birthright citizenship”, a decision legally challenged by the representatives of Democrat-ruled states.

The US has an estimated 11.7 million illegal aliens, about 9% being Indians, out of 40 million foreign passport holders. The initial deportees may be those listed for crimes committed or rejected asylum pleas, etc. The just-passed Laken Riley Act, soon reaching President Trump for signature, has enlarged the crimes triggering immediate deportation and diminished due process.

When Indians are targeted, which is unavoidable, public opinion in India may turn against the Trump administration. During the External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s meeting with the newly appointed Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, this issue figured. 

India is alert to Trump’s threat of higher tariffs against nations with imbalanced trade with the US. America receives almost 20% of Indian exports. India, no doubt, is preparing some duty concessions for US exports to appease Trump. So far, Trump is mooting a 10% tariff on Chinese exports and perhaps a higher 25% tariff on exports from Mexico and Canada.

The justification now goes beyond trade imbalance to the export of fentanyl precursors by China and smuggling to the US via Mexico of that drug and illegals. The deferment of the TikTok ban and the closeness of Trump’s favourite billionaires, Elon Musk and Jeff Yass, to China indicate backchannel negotiations to avoid a confrontation.

President Trump speaking to President Xi, post-inauguration, confirms the same. Noticeably, PM Narendra Modi was not invited to the inauguration, though Xi and three right wing heads of government of Hungary, Italy and Argentina were. The past Modi-Trump bonhomie appears missing so far.

Trump is undermining President Biden’s environment-friendly policies, advanced by three laws, i.e. Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act. These gave tax credits, grants and loans for the transition to a greener and high-tech economy. Trumpian slogan “Drill baby drill”, signals regression to a past that neglected the environmental impact of carbon fuels. China, today, makes half the world’s electric vehicles and plans to dominate that segment going forward.

Trump’s proclaimed American golden age and anachronistic policies are contradictory. He wants a legacy of “a peacemaker and a unifier” but seeks territorial expansion. He claimed credit for the Gaza ceasefire but simultaneously lifted Biden-imposed sanctions on far-right Israelis and settlers’ groups.

Those entities immediately attacked Palestinians in the West Bank, supported by Israeli forces. Israeli PM Netanyahu commenced a double game, ending hostilities in Gaza but provoking Palestinians elsewhere to appease his far-right allies.

Despite claiming to end the Ukraine war in one day, his inauguration speech ignored it. Subsequently, he gently sought the Russian president’s cooperation alongside threatening severe sanctions. President Vladimir Putin is visiting India this year. India continues, next to China, importing discounted Russian oil, amounting during April-October to 40% of Indian oil imports. Reliance signed a ten-year deal for 500,000 barrels of Russian oil per day. If a Ukraine peace deal is elusive, the US sanctions on Russia may entangle India. 

The Economist magazine says Trump “in his mangling of history and economics, is steering America and the world back to a dead end.” One QUAD meeting of foreign ministers is no indication of Trump favouring old alliances, multilateralism and a US-defended international rule of law.

Threats to annex other nations or portions of them are colonial hogwash. Such rhetoric will embolden China to occupy Taiwan or Russia in Ukraine or Israel annexing all of Palestinian lands, etc. Trump may deplete his political capital rapidly by his regressive Make America Great Again agenda. Until then, India must prepare for disruptive US policies while exploiting all openings. Ideally Trump may course-correct, seeking a legacy to whitewash a felon president’s past.