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India needs a predictable and stable agricultural export policy to achieve its ambitious USD 100 billion export target, the Economic Survey said on Thursday, cautioning against frequent and ad hoc trade restrictions that disrupt supply chains and erode global trust.

The survey described agricultural exports as a “low-hanging fruit with immense export potential,” stressing that farm trade also offers India significant international leverage. It urged policymakers to strike a balance between safeguarding domestic food security and enabling sustained export growth.

India has set a goal of reaching USD 100 billion in combined exports of agriculture, marine products, and food and beverages within the next four years, nearly doubling from USD 51.1 billion in agricultural exports recorded in 2024–25. Despite being the world’s second-largest agricultural producer by value, India accounts for only 2.2 per cent of global agricultural exports, up from 1.1 per cent in 2000, highlighting vast untapped potential.

Between 2019–20 and 2024–25, agricultural exports grew at a compound annual growth rate of 8.2 per cent, outperforming overall merchandise export growth of 6.9 per cent. However, this momentum has stalled since 2022–23, even as global agricultural trade expanded to USD 2.4 trillion in 2024 from USD 2.3 trillion in 2022.

The survey warned that frequent policy shifts—such as sudden export bans or minimum export price impositions—create uncertainty, disrupt supply chains, and prompt foreign buyers to shift to alternative suppliers. Once lost, export markets are difficult to regain, it noted.

While acknowledging the role of export curbs in managing domestic inflation and price volatility, the survey recommended alternative tools such as buffer stock management, subsidised food distribution, market interventions, and strict anti-hoarding measures.