C L Rajam

The political landscape in Telangana appears headed for a major transformation. The Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may be inching toward an alliance, judging by recent developments. Signals from BRS Working President K.T. Rama Rao (KTR), hinting at possible collaboration with the BJP, have fueled speculation about a strategic realignment that could reshape the state's political dynamics. With Telangana emerging as a key battleground for the BJP’s expansion in South India, the 2029 elections are set to be a high-stakes contest defined by shifting alliances, regional sentiment, and national ambitions. A potential BRS-BJP front is likely to take on the Congress (INC) in what promises to be a closely fought Assembly election in 2029.

Telangana as the Southern Gateway for BJP

For the BJP, Telangana represents a crucial "Southern Gateway" to expand its influence in South India, especially as it anticipates a potential reduction in parliamentary seats from northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar due to delimitation and increased competition. The party’s strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it doubled its tally to eight seats in Telangana, underscores its growing foothold in the state. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah leading aggressive campaigns, the BJP has capitalized on anti-incumbency against the BRS and leveraged its Hindutva narrative to consolidate votes, particularly in northern Telangana.

However, analysts suggest that the BJP cannot secure a clear majority in Telangana’s assembly elections on its own. The state’s political dynamics, marked by strong regional sentiments and a history of BRS dominance, pose significant challenges. In the 2023 assembly elections, the BJP won only eight seats with a 13.9% vote share, trailing behind the Congress (64 seats) and BRS (39 seats). To achieve its goal of forming the government in Telangana and bolstering its national prospects, the BJP must explore strategic alliances.

BJP’s Strategic Options Political analysts outline four potential strategies for the BJP in Telangana:

Contesting Independently: The BJP could rely on its organizational strength, backed by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and Modi’s popularity to contest the elections solo. However, given the BRS’s strong regional network and Congress’s recent resurgence, this approach risks relegating the BJP to a distant third place.

Alliance with TDP and Jana Sena: A pre-poll alliance with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Jana Sena Party (JSP) could broaden the BJP’s appeal. However, this strategy is fraught with risks, as TDP’s Andhra-centric identity may alienate Telangana voters, potentially fueling BRS’s narrative of regional pride and giving it an edge.

Post-Poll Alliance with BRS: A post-poll alliance with the BRS could be a fallback option, but its success depends on the electoral outcome and prevailing political conditions. The BRS, known for its pragmatic approach, might choose to support either the NDA or the INDIA bloc based on its interests, making this a less reliable strategy.

Pre-Poll Alliance with BRS: The most promising option, according to analysts, is a pre-poll alliance with the BRS. This partnership could combine the BJP’s national might—Modi’s charisma, RSS’s grassroots network, central government funds, and influence over institutions like the Election Commission—with the BRS’s regional clout, including its strong cadre, local leadership, and ability to mobilize Telangana sentiment.

The Lethal BJP-BRS Combination

A BJP-BRS alliance could be a game-changer in Telangana. The BJP brings significant resources to the table, including central government support for infrastructure projects like the Hyderabad Metro, Musi Riverfront development, bank loans, and road networks. Its influence could also curb Congress’s election fund movements, giving the alliance a tactical advantage. The BRS, on the other hand, offers a robust local network, prominent leaders like KCR, KTR, and Harish Rao, and the ability to highlight Congress’s unfulfilled promises and internal divisions.

KTR’s recent statement supporting a BJP vice-presidential candidate in exchange for urea supplies for Telangana farmers signals a potential warming of ties. While both parties may publicly maintain an adversarial stance to preserve their voter bases, analysts argue that a pre-poll alliance is a “historic necessity” for mutual benefit. For the BRS, this could position KTR as a potential Chief Minister and Harish Rao as a central minister, ensuring continued development funds for Telangana.

The Muslim Vote Factor

Muslim voters, who constitute a significant portion of Telangana’s electorate, traditionally lean toward Congress or the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which retained its seven seats in Hyderabad’s Old City in 2023. However, analysts suggest that a BJP-BRS alliance perceived as a winning combination could sway a section of Muslim voters, drawing parallels with Gujarat, where Muslims have supported the BJP when its victory seemed assured. The BRS’s welfare schemes for minorities, such as Shaadi Mubarak and minority gurukuls, could further bolster its appeal among Muslim voters despite the BJP’s involvement.

Congress’s Challenges and Strengths

The Congress, led by Chief Minister Revanth Reddy, faces a dual challenge: countering the potential BJP-BRS alliance and managing internal dissent. Reddy, a dynamic and young leader, has consolidated power by leveraging ministers, IAS and IPS officers and building a loyal team of political and business allies. His leadership in the 2023 caste census has strengthened his appeal among backward classes, who form 52% of Telangana’s population. However, senior Congress leaders reportedly in touch with the party high command could undermine his position if the party falters.

Despite these challenges, Reddy’s ability to meet the resource demands of the Congress high command and his proactive governance make him a formidable opponent. The Congress’s 2023 victory, driven by Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and anti-incumbency against the BRS, demonstrates its potential to dominate in north and south Telangana.

The Road to 2029: A Royal Battle

With increased assembly seats and the possibility of combined assembly and parliamentary elections, Telangana’s political landscape remains fluid. Alliances are likely to crystallize six months before the elections, with political enemies potentially becoming allies and vice versa. The BRS’s willingness to explore a BJP alliance, as hinted by KTR, reflects a pragmatic approach to counter Congress’s momentum. Meanwhile, the BJP’s focus on Telangana as a southern stronghold, backed by Modi’s aggressive campaigns and RSS’s groundwork, underscores its determination to break into the south