File  photo of Russian Army’s armoured vehicles near Hmeimim air base in Syria  —AP

Agencies ATAKIA (Syria)

Russia's military presence in Syria, centered on the Hmeimim Air Base and Tartous Naval Base, faces a new reality. With Bashar al-Assad ousted, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) now controls the region and guards the Russian bases. These bases, crucial for Russia's Middle East and African military reach, are now subject to renegotiation by Syria's interim President Ahmed Sharaa. He seeks revised terms for the leases, but not a complete Russian withdrawal.

The bases' continued operation hinges on Russia providing diplomatic support and financial compensation to the new Syrian regime. This marks a significant shift, as the Islamist leadership, once targeted by Russian airstrikes, now engages with Moscow in negotiations.

This pragmatic approach benefits both sides. Despite some sanctions easing, Syria's war-torn economy needs Russian support, particularly in weapons, fuel, and wheat supplies. As a Damascus-based diplomat noted, the new Syrian leaders are willing "to make peace, even with their former enemies."

Anna Borshchevskaya of The Washington Institute emphasizes Russia's enduring influence, stating, "Russia simply needs a government in Damascus that would ensure its interests, and it would be willing to make a deal with that government." While a UN aid source indicates Russia hasn't yet resumed grain exports to Syria under the new administration, the potential for renewed Russian involvement remains. The evolving situation also coincides with US President Donald Trump's efforts to improve US-Russia relations.  adding another layer of complexity to the region's geopolitical landscape.